原创 2015-10-18 季天鹤央行观察央行观察

季天鹤，方正中期研究院研究员，央行观察专栏作家

经过了动荡的8月之后，9月的央行数据又讲述了哪些外汇、银行间与银行存款的故事呢？

外汇市场：大家或许记得，8月份央行为了稳定外汇市场，一方面通过“外汇占款”科目将约3200亿元等价外汇给了银行，另一方面通过“其它国外资产”科目将约5400亿元等价国外资产给了银行，因此银行收到了上述总计约8600亿元等价国外资产。但8月份的银行国外资产仅增加了4525亿。消失的约4100亿元，应该对应了8月外币跨境净汇出的等值4641亿元人民币中的大部分。

9月份的央行依然抛出了外汇，但仅有等值2641亿元人民币，其它国外资产变化更少，总体比8月份的时候大为淡定。然而我们注意到，对所有金融机构而言，外汇占款总共减少了7613亿元，这意味着除了央行抛出的上述2641亿元人民币的外汇之外，银行自己又独自承受了剩余的等值近5000亿元人民币公众购汇，在外汇信贷收支表上表现为减少737亿美元外汇买卖，这比8月份的减少761亿美元稍微不那么剧烈了一点。

这些购汇用来做什么了？考虑到9月外汇贷款减少约500亿美元，存款也减少151亿美元，可以猜测，上述7613亿元人民币（约1200亿美元）的外汇占款减少，一方面意味着市场主体购汇后汇出，但另一方面也意味着市场主体购汇后向境内银行归还了大量的债。剩余的约850亿美元差额，则被汇出境外或者成为了存款以外的其它项目。可以估计，跨境汇款会使得银行在花掉央行给的等值2641亿元外汇之外，还要消耗2000亿左右自身的国外资产。

央行干预离岸人民币市场，央行外币存款资产变成人民币存款，对于央行存款的境外银行而言，则是外币资产变身人民币负债。央行要不要把这部分人民币拿回来，即自己同时减计外汇占款项目和银行在央行人民币存款，并让这家境外银行以及境外银行存放人民币存款的境内银行双双缩表，就是央行自己的事情了。如果减计的话，境外干预也会影响外汇占款，同时造成离岸人民币存款的减少。如果不减计，则外汇占款不受影响，但离岸人民币存款也不会少，只不过持有人由某外资机构变成了人民银行。

银行间市场：我们还记得8月份央行稳定外汇市场，抛出外汇，但代价是收回了银行持有的人民币，于是又不得不通过公开市场操作提供超过7400亿的人民币流动性支持。9月央行虽然也提供了外汇流动性，收回了人民币流动性，但由于9月降准，银行需要满足的准备金要求大大降低，于是我们看到央行撤掉了4566亿的对银行贷款，任凭银行在央行的存款单月减少约7000亿。

两者差额2500亿，之所以很大程度上对应了外汇占款减少的2641亿，是因为货币发行与财政支出相互抵消。每年的9月份都是货币发行增加的时期，公众对纸币硬币的需求大大提高，9月央行也新增了2871亿元的货币发行。同时，9月也是财政净支出的月份，所以政府在央行的存款减少2200亿。此外当然还有一些其它项目。

央行撤掉的4566亿对银行贷款中，包括了逆回购净到期收回1800亿，各种SLO到期收回3400亿，以及新增PSL投放的521亿元。但是，如果观察大中小银行的数据，则当月大中小银行向央行借款余额仅减少28亿，和撤掉的4566亿相差约4500亿。而前面提到银行在央行存款减少了约7000亿，而其中大中小行便减少了约6600亿。而8月的时候，央行对银行放贷约7400亿，大中小行虽仅得到约1200亿，但在央行存款却增加约5400亿。

可见，9月份的情况是8月份的回转，即8月央行补充的流动性，其大部分并没有直接给到大中小行，而是给了其它银行，使其它银行欠央行债务增加较多，而其它银行又把流动性转回了大行，使得大行在央行存款增加较多。而9月份大中小行虽并未大规模偿还央行，但将流动性转给了其它银行，使自身在央行存款减少，而其它的银行在9月偿还央行了约4500亿。

银行人民币存款：9月的剧情和8月并没有本质差异。银行发放了10513亿贷款，并且投资了4834亿债券，以及1011亿其它投资。上述16358亿元中，7613亿元通过外汇买卖成为外币，前面已经提到被用于汇出和偿债了，8857亿元成为了“其它”，1143亿元被公众用于购买了金融债券，此外还被社会公众提取了近2000亿元纸币等等，所以最后各项存款是减少了3192亿。

从各项存款的细项来看，境外存款减少1000亿元，而当月境外人民币贷款余额也减少了51亿元，反映出境外人民币主要的去向应该还是国内。这里的境外存款减少是否和央行在离岸的操作有关，还需要更多信息。注意到境外人民币贷款在8月份增加了900亿，可见9月境外市场看法发生了逆转：8月份时认为人民币要趋势性贬值，大量借入人民币，但9月份大概意识到人民币会双向波动，因此反应是削减债务和风险敞口。

对于境内存款而言，我们看到非银行业金融机构存款再减12150亿，规模比8月的减少8000亿还多。银证转帐的数据依然能够解释其中3000-4000亿的减少。剩余部分或许是各类非银机构（保险、基金、证券公司等）投资于一级和二级市场，使得企业和个人得到了本属于这些机构的银行存款。

10月份我们会看到什么？汇率市场稳定，将使得人行外汇资产的降幅进一步缩小。银行为了应对波动，会努力增持一些国外资产。公众的恐慌平息后，外汇占款的降幅也可能会缩小。央行降准与否，将重新基于国内信贷的考量，而不是外汇稳定操作的被动结果。

After the tumultuous August, what stories about foreign exchange, interbank transactions, and bank deposits does the central bank data for September reveal?

Foreign Exchange Market:

In August, to stabilize the foreign exchange market, the central bank provided about 320 billion yuan worth of foreign exchange to banks through the "foreign exchange deposits" category, and about 540 billion yuan worth of foreign assets to banks through the "other foreign assets" category, resulting in banks receiving a total of about 860 billion yuan worth of foreign assets. However, in August, banks' foreign assets increased by only 452.5 billion yuan. The missing approximately 410 billion yuan should correspond to a large portion of the equivalent of 464.1 billion yuan in net outflows of foreign currency in August.

In September, the central bank continued to release foreign exchange but only about 264.1 billion yuan worth. There were fewer changes in other foreign assets, and overall, the situation was much calmer than in August. However, it's notable that for all financial institutions, foreign exchange deposits decreased by a total of 761.3 billion yuan. This means that apart from the 264.1 billion yuan worth of foreign exchange released by the central bank, banks had to bear the burden of nearly 500 billion yuan worth of public purchases of foreign exchange. This is reflected in the foreign exchange credit and debit statement as a decrease of 73.7 billion USD in foreign exchange trading, which was slightly less dramatic than the decrease of 76.1 billion USD in August.

What was this purchased foreign exchange used for? Considering that in September, foreign exchange loans decreased by about 50 billion USD, and deposits decreased by 15.1 billion USD, it can be speculated that the reduction of the 761.3 billion yuan (about 120 billion USD) in foreign exchange deposits means that market entities both remitted the purchased foreign exchange abroad and repaid a significant amount of debt to domestic banks. The remaining approximately 85 billion USD difference might have been remitted abroad or allocated to other items besides deposits. It can be estimated that cross-border remittances caused banks to not only use the 2.641 billion yuan worth of foreign exchange provided by the central bank but also consume about 200 billion USD worth of their own foreign assets.

Offshore RMB Market:

When the central bank intervenes in the offshore RMB market, its foreign currency deposit assets become RMB deposits, and for foreign banks holding deposits with the central bank, their foreign currency assets become RMB liabilities. Whether the central bank retrieves this RMB is its own decision. If it does, it will reduce the "foreign exchange deposits" item and the RMB deposits of banks with the central bank, causing both foreign banks and domestic banks holding RMB deposits to contract their balance sheets. If not, the "foreign exchange deposits" will remain unchanged, but offshore RMB deposits will not decrease. It's the central bank's own affair. If it does reduce the "foreign exchange deposits," it will affect offshore intervention and also result in a decrease in offshore RMB deposits.

Interbank Market:

In August, the central bank provided foreign exchange liquidity to stabilize the market, but in return, it retrieved RMB liquidity held by banks. As a result, the central bank had to provide more than 740 billion yuan in liquidity support through open market operations. In September, while the central bank continued to provide foreign exchange liquidity and retrieved RMB liquidity, due to a reserve requirement reduction, banks' required reserves were significantly lowered. As a result, the central bank withdrew 456.6 billion yuan in loans to banks, allowing banks' deposits with the central bank to decrease by about 700 billion yuan in a single month.

Bank RMB Deposits:

In September, bank lending increased by 1.0513 trillion yuan, and investments in bonds amounted to 483.4 billion yuan, along with 101.1 billion yuan in other investments. Out of the total 1.6358 trillion yuan, 761.3 billion yuan was converted through foreign exchange transactions into foreign currency. About 8.857 trillion yuan became "other," and 114.3 billion yuan was used by the public to purchase financial bonds. Additionally, nearly 200 billion yuan in cash was withdrawn by the public. As a result, various deposits decreased by 319.2 billion yuan.

Summary for October:

With a stabilized exchange rate market, the central bank's foreign exchange assets' decline will further narrow. Banks will strive to increase foreign assets to cope with fluctuations. Once public panic subsides, the decline in foreign exchange deposits may also lessen. Whether the central bank reduces the reserve requirement or not will depend on domestic credit considerations rather than being a passive result of foreign exchange stabilization operations.