原创 2015-10-24 季天鹤央行观察央行观察

作者：季天鹤，方正中期研究院研究员，央行观察专栏作家

货币量的来源：按照央行统计，广义货币量M2=国外净资产+国内信贷-不纳入广义货币的存款-债券-实收资本-其他（净）。因而M2增速如何，完全受到各项增速的影响，也就可以计算每项对M2增长的贡献率。在很长时间里，国外净资产都是货币量增长率的主要贡献者。外汇流入并结汇，使银行和央行增持了国外资产，并使银行的人民币存款增加。

国内信贷，包括对政府净债权、对非金融部门债权，以及对其他金融部门债权，并在“4万亿”期间一跃成为货币量增长的主要动力。其中，对政府净债权等于对政府债权减去政府存款。对政府债权的含义是，银行买入国债，将在央行存款变为国库存款，然后财政支出使国库存款回补银行在央行存款，同时增加财政支出接收者的银行存款，实现货币创造。

如果政府存款账户不是开在央行，而是开在银行，那么增加对政府债权就和对企业放贷无异。但目前国库存款账户开在央行，与银行在央行的存款地位相同，因此国库存款本身不是货币量的一部分，而只是有能力创造货币量的某种东西，这和银行库存纸币不算做货币量的逻辑相同。

07年附近，银行实收资本的增加减缓了货币量的增长，因为银行存款在银行IPO的过程中减少，变成了股权。而银行发放红利，使存款负债增加，则会创造更多存款货币。此外，银行向市场主体发行债券，若市场主体使用银行存款购买，银行存款减少，货币量也减少。若不使用银行存款入股的话，货币量就不会减少，比如历史上财政部发行国债入股，央行使用外汇入股等等。

目前货币量增速的挑战：首先，国外净资产对货币量增速的支持越来越弱。一方面，外汇净流入正在变成净流出或者双向流动，再无08年前的盛况。另一方面，即使不考虑外汇流入流出，境内主体自身也开始愿意持有外币存款，这本身也是对人民币存款以及货币量增速的削弱。人民币的国际化也使得银行的国外负债增加。

于是，贷款和货币增速绑定起来。贷款是间接融资，而融资分直接和间接两种。前者不影响货币量，只是货币从出资方转入融资方，而后者影响货币量，即出资方创造出新货币给融资方。直接融资除了非银行机构购买非银行机构债券之外，还包括影子银行业务，例如银行直接将理财客户存款与融资客户对接，转移存款而不是放贷扩表。

直接融资和货币量增长目标相抵触。如果IPO和再融资渠道通畅，交易所公司债发行和交易热潮持续，保险基金等机构投资者规模越发庞大，融资更多表现为货币的转手而非创造，货币量的增长就无法保证。而为了保证货币量的增长，就必须通过贷款的方式创造货币。为保货币量而保贷款，乃至限制非银投资者和市场，大概不好。

贷款和货币量的绑定不利于分散风险。目前货币量只有银行存款和流通中纸硬币，而社会大概不会回到广泛使用纸币硬币的时代，也不会一下子进化到每个人都在央行有存款帐户的时代。而货币只能通过贷款来创造，意味着银行的规模将越来越庞大，风险集中于银行体系，银行为了满足资本充足率的要求，也总是面临再融资的压力。

贷款和货币量的绑定不利于金融创新。例如银行发行资产支持债券，如果出售给基金保险以及散户，将使银行资产减少，同时存款也相应减少，导致货币量的减少，使货币量增速目标更难完成。除此之外，企业向非银主体发债来替换银行贷款、银行将自身资产与存款理财对接等，都伴随着银行的缩表。此外，互联网金融全都是利用银行现有存款进行融通，本身的业务都是存款转移，而完全不增加货币量。

即使不考虑上述绑定，货币量增速指标的思想根源，在于认为货币量增速要和经济总量增速有一个简单算术关系，比如货币量增速一方面要跟上总量增长，同时还要满足在改革中各种商品货币化所导致的货币持有需求。这一思想，和存贷比一样，都是上世纪中国金融现实和思想的真实写照，在那个时候是有现实意义的。

上世纪股票债券市场和机构投资者都不发达，实体经济对于商品的需求较为刚性，货币量和经济、价格的关系较为简单直接。但现在，时代已经变化了，股票和债券市场本身可以有效融通货币，市场主体有了钱未必去花，而是攒着买房或者炒股，货币量更多反映为部分资产的价格变化，而非实体经济产出或者产品服务价格，货币量与经济、价格的关系也变得复杂和间接了。

和存贷比一样，货币量增速目标能够较好地完成，也是和外汇的流入有关的“历史巧合”。外汇流入结汇，只创造存款不产生贷款，不会提高存贷比。同时，结汇创造货币，在不增加银行信用风险和融资需要的同时，配合上贷款投放，货币量增速很容易达标甚至超标。但现在，外汇结汇形成存款和准备金存款的时代已经过去了。

于是，货币量增速与存贷比这两个指标的问题暴露了。对存贷比而言，外汇流出，人民币存款减少但贷款并不变，存贷比上升的趋势便不可阻挡。对货币量增速而言，银行放贷增速达不到货币量增速要求，剩下的空如何补就成为了问题。中国的发展很快，今天合乎实际的指标，过几年或许就会失效甚至形成桎梏。存贷比就是先例。

目前是放开增速目标的好时机。国际大宗商品价格处于低位，国内投资增速放缓，产能和库存过剩普遍。此时放开货币量增速目标，首先由于准备金率依然有效，银行不太可能有大动作。其次由于坏账问题浮现，银行放贷不敢冲动，同时也受制于实体经济贷款需求疲弱。此时放开增速目标，不会出现“泄洪”般的放贷。

如果暂时不能放弃货币量增速目标，那么政府可以抓住机遇，通过向银行发债的方式，和银行对企业和住户的债权一起，支撑起货币量的增速，并形成一些有收益的资产。央行也可以借机进入，通过直接购买非银机构资产，在银行资产负债侧同时创造准备金存款和一般存款，既完成了货币量增速目标，还能增加自身资产与收入，也算是一举多得了。

With interest rates liberalized, the next focus is on the money supply. The sources of the money supply are as follows: According to central bank statistics, broad money supply (M2) equals foreign net assets plus domestic credit minus deposits not included in broad money, bonds, paid-in capital, and other (net). Therefore, the growth rate of M2 is completely influenced by the growth rates of these components, and the contribution rate of each component to M2 growth can be calculated. For a long time, foreign net assets have been the main contributor to the growth rate of the money supply. Inflows and settlement of foreign exchange have led to banks and the central bank increasing their foreign assets, thus increasing banks' RMB deposits.

Domestic credit, including government net claims, claims on non-financial sectors, and claims on other financial sectors, became a major driver of money supply growth, particularly during the "4 trillion yuan" stimulus period. Government net claims are equal to claims on the government minus government deposits. Claims on the government imply that banks buy government bonds, converting their deposits with the central bank into deposits with the treasury. Subsequent fiscal expenditures replenish the treasury deposits at the central bank, while also increasing the bank deposits of the recipients of fiscal expenditures, thereby facilitating money creation.

If the government's deposit account were held in commercial banks rather than the central bank, increasing claims on the government would be no different from lending to enterprises. However, as the government's deposit account is with the central bank, holding the same status as banks' deposits, treasury deposits themselves are not part of the money supply; they represent the potential to create money rather than being money in circulation, aligning with the logic that bank-held currency doesn't count as money supply.

Around 2007, the increase in banks' paid-in capital slowed down the growth of the money supply, as bank deposits decreased during bank IPOs, converting into equities. When banks distribute dividends, their deposit liabilities increase, thus creating more deposit money. Additionally, when banks issue bonds to market participants, if these participants use bank deposits for purchases, banks' deposits decrease, leading to a decrease in the money supply. If not funded by bank deposits, the money supply wouldn't decrease. For example, historical instances like the Ministry of Finance issuing bonds or the central bank using foreign exchange reserves to buy bonds did not involve using bank deposits.

The challenge in current money supply growth is that foreign net assets are becoming a weaker contributor. On one hand, foreign net inflows are turning into net outflows or two-way flows, unlike the peak around 2008. On the other hand, even without considering foreign exchange flows, domestic entities are now more willing to hold foreign currency deposits, weakening RMB deposits and money supply growth. The internationalization of the RMB has also led to an increase in foreign liabilities for banks.

Hence, loans are tied to money supply growth. Loans are a form of indirect financing, which can be categorized as direct or indirect. The former doesn't affect the money supply, as money shifts from investors to borrowers, while the latter does impact the money supply, meaning investors create new money for borrowers. Direct financing, apart from non-bank institutions purchasing non-bank institution bonds, includes shadow banking activities. For example, banks directly link depositors and borrowers through wealth management products, transferring deposits without expanding their balance sheets through loans.

The bond between loans and money supply growth runs counter to financial diversification. Currently, money supply includes only bank deposits and cash in circulation, and society is unlikely to revert to widespread use of cash. Money can only be created through loans, which implies that banks' size will become increasingly substantial. The risk concentration within the banking system will persist, and banks will face pressure to refinance to meet capital adequacy requirements.

The linkage between loans and money supply growth also hampers financial innovation. For instance, if banks issue asset-backed securities and sell them to funds, insurance companies, and retail investors, their assets and deposits decrease, leading to a decrease in the money supply, which makes money supply growth goals harder to achieve. Additionally, when companies issue bonds to non-bank entities to replace bank loans or when banks link their assets with deposit wealth management, they involve shrinking their balance sheets. Furthermore, all internet finance relies on existing bank deposits for circulation, without increasing the money supply.

Even if one disregards the above linkage, the origins of the money supply growth target lie in the idea that money supply growth should have a simple arithmetic relationship with overall economic growth. However, this idea, much like the loan-to-deposit ratio, reflects a bygone era of China's financial reality and thought from the last century. Back then, it held practical significance.

During the last century, stock and bond markets and institutional investors were undeveloped, and the demand for commodities by the real economy was relatively rigid, resulting in a direct and simple relationship between money supply, economy, and prices. But times have changed. Now, stock and bond markets effectively circulate money, and market participants may not spend their money immediately, instead saving it for buying property or investing in stocks. Money supply now more reflects the price changes of certain assets rather than the output of the real economy or the prices of goods and services. The relationship between money supply, economy, and prices has become complex and indirect.

Similar to the loan-to-deposit ratio, the money supply growth target has been well-achieved due to a "historical coincidence" related to foreign exchange inflows. Foreign exchange inflows and settlements created deposits without generating loans, which didn't increase the loan-to-deposit ratio. Moreover, with money creation through settlements, under the conditions of managing bank credit risk and financing needs, when loans are released, money supply growth can be easily met or even exceeded. However, the era of foreign exchange inflows leading to deposits and required reserves is over.

Therefore, the issues with the money supply growth target and the loan-to-deposit ratio have been exposed. For the loan-to-deposit ratio, if foreign exchange outflows occur and RMB deposits decrease without a change in loans, the trend of increasing loan-to-deposit ratios becomes inevitable. Regarding money supply growth, if banks' loan growth cannot keep pace with the money supply growth requirement, the question is how to fill the gap. China's development is fast-paced; indicators that are currently realistic might become ineffective or even restrictive in a few years. The loan-to-deposit ratio sets a precedent.

Currently, it's a good time to lift growth targets. International commodity prices are low, domestic investment growth has slowed, and overcapacity and excess inventory are widespread. By freeing up money supply growth targets at this time, banks are unlikely to make drastic moves, given that the reserve requirement ratio is still effective. Additionally, due to emerging bad debt issues, banks are cautious about lending and are limited by weak demand for loans from the real economy. By freeing up growth targets now, there won't be a "flood-like" surge in lending.

If temporarily unable to abandon money supply growth targets, the government can capitalize on the opportunity by issuing bonds to banks, supporting money supply growth through claims on enterprises and households, and generating some profitable assets. The central bank can also enter the scene by directly purchasing non-bank institution assets, creating both reserve deposits and regular deposits on banks' balance sheets. This would fulfill money supply growth targets while also increasing the central bank's assets and income, yielding a multipronged benefit.