2015-07-30 央行观察

外汇局近期在新闻发布会上提到，上半年本币跨境收支为顺差、外币跨境收支为逆差。其中，人民币对外支付总量的徘徊不前格外引人注目，一种“人民币汇不出去了、都被退回了”的感觉油然而生。此外，人行的数据也显示，2015年上半年，跨境贸易人民币结算业务发生3.37万亿元，而2014年上半年为3.27万亿元，早已不复曾经50%的增速。人民币国际化遇到了阻力。

人民币外流的机制和影响

境外客户持有的离岸人民币存款，表现为在境外银行的人民币“一般存款”。既然有“一般存款”，就有“存款准备金”，境外银行的人民币“存款准备金”，表现为境外银行在境内银行或人行的存款。人民币流出，既增加收款客户在境外银行的存款，同时也增加境外银行在人行或境内银行的存款。

所以，人民币对外的净流出是人民币国际化的必要条件，否则境外银行无从持有人民币作为准备金，也就无从开展离岸人民币贷款，实现离岸人民币的货币创造了。更多细节，可以参考人行不久前出版的《信用创造、货币供求与经济结构》一书。

人民币流出是否造成境内流动性的紧张呢？一种情况下，境内银行的一部分存款准备金，变成了境外银行在央行的存款，于是，境内银行在央行的超额准备金的减少，这和境内企业和居民缴税一样，给银行间市场带来趋紧的压力。

另一种情况下，境外银行在境内银行开户，境内客户向境外客户支付人民币时，其在境内银行的一般存款，转变为境外银行在境内银行的同业存款。境内银行资产侧的超额准备金虽然不变，但负债侧的一般存款变为同业存款，货币量会减少。

如何应对银行体系或实体经济中的流动性减少呢？在境内银行超额准备金减少的情况下，人行可以调节存款准备金余额或调整法定存准率，维持原有超额准备金率。在银行的一般存款减少的情况下，由于银行资产侧准备金存款不变，因此一般存款减少使得法定准备金要求降低，准备金存款不变的情形下，超额准备金增加，超额准备金率上升，银行可以继续发放贷款，创造新的存款，但此时会出现资本充足率的约束，或许会影响新增贷款。当然，监管当局需要考虑是否需要维持人民币流出前的超额准备金率和货币总量。

人民币逆差与外币逆差的风险

既然人行可以创造人民币存款准备金，境内银行可以创造人民币银行存款，境外对人民币的需求，总可以通过上述两部门扩大资产负债表应对，那么可不可以说，人民币逆差和外币逆差中，人民币逆差是好的和无需担心的，外币逆差是坏的和需要防备的呢？我们可以用银行的存款与储备货币的关系来观察。

人民币逆差，使人行的国外负债以及境内银行的国外负债增加。而由前所述，若境内又需要维持原有的准备金余额和M2，则人民币逆差将使人行和境内银行的人民币总负债增加。而若人行和境内银行持有的外币头寸不变，则同样的外币资产对应了更多的人民币负债，在市场大量卖出人民币买入外汇时，人行和境内银行维持汇率稳定的能力将减弱。

外币逆差，使人行和银行的外币头寸减少，尽管银行售汇汇出的同时会减少客户的人民币存款，人行售汇给银行的同时会减少银行的人民币准备金存款，但如果境内又维持了原有的准备金余额和M2，则人行和境内银行持有的外币头寸减少时，人民币负债总量不变，较少外币资产对应原有规模的人民币负债。在市场大量卖出人民币买入外汇时，人行和境内银行维持汇率稳定的能力也会减弱。

综上，人民币逆差和外币逆差，在“外币-人民币”这一比例中，是分母侧或分子侧的变动，两者都会使境内金融体系的外币资产相对于人民币负债的比例缩小。

目前的困境与对策

文章开头的人民币流出以及结算总额增速放缓，反映的都是境外机构对人民币需求的下降。人们已经围绕着人民币国际化在真实的支付便利以及财务上的好处等方面进行了很多讨论。支付便利随着政策的不断放开应该越来越大，目前主要的挑战来自财务好处上。

如果观察人民币净流入的时期，我们可以看到，其与人民币汇率停止走强的联系。弱势的人民币意味着较多的净流入。可以想象，如果人民币巨幅贬值，境外机构持有人民币的兴趣大减，纷纷用人民币购买中国商品，之后再也不接受人民币付款。

此外还有利率的影响，特别是人民币利率水平也在走低，持有人民币资产的利率收益减少。而美元的影响也不容忽视，特别是当美元逐渐走强，利率走高的前景下，持有美元或者归还美元债务就成为必要操作，而这也会对人民币造成一种替代。

央行在这个时刻的首要任务，恐怕是稳定人民币汇率。如果再来一轮人民币走软，则境外机构更不愿意持有人民币，而人民币的流入也将成为无源之水，终将枯竭，人民币国际化也就告一段落了。人民币至少要能像美元一样保持价值，让境外机构觉得持有人民币和美元差不多好，此外再有一些好处和便利，方能努力维持人气。

更深层次的问题还在于，货币政策是否会继续被汇率政策影响。高利率和不贬值有利于人民币国际化，但现在的经济形势渴望低利率和贬值。特别是目前人民币汇率已经被高估或不被低估，国内价格水平趋于降低，这将直接影响央行货币政策的目标。可见，在目前的形势下，巩固现有人民币国际化的成果，不开倒车，就已经难能可贵。除了金融的助力，也需要实体经济的努力。

Recently, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange mentioned in a press conference that in the first half of the year, there was a surplus in RMB cross-border transactions, while there was a deficit in foreign currency cross-border transactions. Among these, the hesitation in the total amount of RMB payments to foreign countries has attracted special attention, giving rise to a feeling of "RMB can't be sent abroad and is all being returned." In addition, data from the People's Bank of China (PBOC) also shows that in the first half of 2015, the value of RMB settlement for cross-border trade was 3.37 trillion yuan, compared to 3.27 trillion yuan in the first half of 2014, indicating that the once 50% growth rate has not been sustained. RMB internationalization has encountered resistance.

The Mechanism and Impact of RMB Outflows

Offshore RMB deposits held by foreign customers appear as "ordinary deposits" in foreign banks. If there are "ordinary deposits," then there are "reserve requirements." Foreign banks' RMB "reserve requirements" appear as deposits with domestic banks or the PBOC. RMB outflows increase both the deposits of payment clients in foreign banks and the deposits of foreign banks in domestic banks or the PBOC.

Therefore, net RMB outflows are a necessary condition for RMB internationalization; otherwise, foreign banks would have no way to hold RMB as reserves, nor would they be able to conduct offshore RMB lending and create offshore RMB currency. For more details, refer to the PBOC's recently published book "Credit Creation, Money Supply and Economic Structure."

Does RMB outflow lead to domestic liquidity shortages? In one scenario, a portion of domestic bank reserve requirements becomes deposits held by foreign banks in the central bank. This is similar to how domestic enterprises and residents pay taxes, adding pressure to the interbank market. In another scenario, when foreign banks open accounts with domestic banks and domestic customers pay RMB to foreign customers, their ordinary deposits with domestic banks are transformed into interbank deposits held by foreign banks with domestic banks. Although the excess reserve deposit on the asset side of domestic banks remains unchanged, the reduction in ordinary deposits on the liability side results in a decrease in the required statutory reserve ratio. With constant reserve deposit and increased excess reserves, the excess reserve ratio rises, allowing banks to continue granting loans and creating new deposits. However, at this point, constraints on capital adequacy may arise, potentially impacting new loans. Of course, regulatory authorities need to consider whether to maintain the pre-outflow excess reserve ratio and money supply.

Risks of RMB Deficit and Foreign Currency Deficit

Since the PBOC can create RMB reserve deposits and domestic banks can create RMB bank deposits, the demand for RMB from abroad can be accommodated by expanding the balance sheets of these two sectors, as mentioned earlier. Can we say that, among the deficits in RMB and foreign currency, the RMB deficit is positive and need not be worried about, while the foreign currency deficit is negative and requires vigilance? We can observe this using the relationship between bank deposits and reserve currency.

A RMB deficit leads to an increase in the PBOC's foreign liabilities and domestic banks' foreign liabilities. As stated before, if the domestic reserve requirements and M2 need to be maintained, a RMB deficit will increase the total RMB liabilities of the PBOC and domestic banks. If the PBOC and domestic banks' foreign currency positions remain unchanged, the same foreign currency assets correspond to more RMB liabilities. When the market sells a large amount of RMB to buy foreign currency, the PBOC and domestic banks' ability to maintain exchange rate stability will weaken.

A foreign currency deficit leads to a decrease in the PBOC and banks' foreign currency positions. Although selling foreign exchange will reduce customers' RMB deposits and selling foreign exchange to banks will reduce their RMB reserve deposits, if the original reserve requirements and M2 are maintained domestically, a reduction in the foreign currency position of the PBOC and domestic banks will not affect the total RMB liabilities. When the market sells a large amount of RMB to buy foreign currency, the PBOC and domestic banks' ability to maintain exchange rate stability will also weaken.

In summary, both RMB and foreign currency deficits, in the "foreign currency to RMB" ratio, involve changes on the denominator or numerator side. Both will decrease the proportion of foreign currency assets in the domestic financial system relative to RMB liabilities.

Current Dilemmas and Countermeasures

The RMB outflows and the slowdown in settlement growth at the beginning of the article reflect the decrease in demand for RMB from foreign institutions. There has been much discussion surrounding the real benefits of RMB internationalization in terms of payment convenience and finance. Payment convenience should increase as policies continue to be relaxed, and the main challenges now come from financial benefits.

Observing periods of net RMB inflows, we can see a connection with the RMB exchange rate's cessation of strengthening. A weaker RMB signifies higher net inflows. One can imagine that if the RMB significantly depreciates, foreign institutions would lose interest in holding RMB and would instead use RMB to purchase Chinese goods, subsequently refusing RMB payments.

Interest rates also have an impact, especially when RMB interest rates are decreasing, leading to lower returns on RMB assets. The influence of the US dollar cannot be overlooked either, especially when the US dollar gradually strengthens and interest rates rise. Holding US dollars or repaying US dollar debt becomes necessary, creating a substitute for RMB.

At this moment, the primary task of the central bank is likely to stabilize the RMB exchange rate. If another round of RMB depreciation occurs, foreign institutions will be even less willing to hold RMB, and RMB inflows will also become unsustainable, eventually drying up and concluding RMB internationalization. At the very least, the RMB needs to maintain its value like the US dollar, making foreign institutions feel that holding RMB is nearly as good as holding US dollars. In addition to financial assistance, efforts from the real economy are also required.

A deeper problem lies in whether monetary policy will continue to be influenced by exchange rate policy. High interest rates and no depreciation are favorable for RMB internationalization, but the current economic situation calls for low interest rates and depreciation. Especially when the RMB exchange rate is already overvalued or not undervalued, and domestic price levels tend to decrease, this will directly affect the objectives of the central bank's monetary policy. Thus, given the current situation, maintaining the achievements of current RMB internationalization without reversing course is already precious. Apart from financial support, efforts from the real economy are also needed.