2015-11-20 央行观察

电影《大话西游》里面有个至尊宝，周星驰演的，爱上了仙女紫霞。可是阴差阳错，紫霞被牛魔王弄到手，眼看就要成婚。至尊宝面临了选择：要么变成孙悟空打败牛魔王，但代价是去西天取经，不能和紫霞在一起；要么留在尘世，眼看牛魔王得手却无能为力。至尊宝应该做怎样的选择呢？

电影中，至尊宝选择了成为孙悟空，踩着七彩祥云拿着金箍棒打废了牛魔王，救出紫霞却被金箍勒得头炸，只能撒手跟唐僧去取经（好在唐僧也基因突变，不再婆婆妈妈，而是言简意赅了）。对这部电影有很多理解方式，作者的看法或许也只是其中一种理解，即情节的纠结之处，在于至尊宝陷入的矛盾。

同样，央行也面临了至尊宝-孙悟空式的矛盾。央行想要一个国际化的人民币稳定地在自己身边，但为了让人民币在自己身边稳定，央行发现人民币就无法国际化了，如同孙悟空救了紫霞却又要去取经了。但如果让人民币国际化，人民币又无法稳定听话了，如同至尊宝不去取经，但也救不了紫霞了。具体详情，请看下文分解。

离岸市场的市场主体，在预期和行为上都和在岸不一样，无论是汇率变动上，还是利率变动上都自成一体。以利率为例，熟悉中国利率汇率市场的读者，都知道人民币拆借利率的三国演义：银行间拆借利率相对平静，央行指哪儿打哪儿，而离岸人民币和交易所人民币拆借利率则往往上窜下跳，要不就是割据一方各走各的，根本不把央行的利率目标当回事儿。

造成这个现象的原因，在于央行在银行间直接和银行作对手，逆回购也好，SLO也罢，央行想管就能管到位。而交易所的大伙儿拆借的是银行存款，离岸的银行之间拆借的是在境内银行的同业存款，离岸其他主体拆借的是在离岸银行的存款，都属于央行八杆子打不到的域外之地，当然行动上就放肆得多。

不过利率方面，由于银行间与交易所的分隔，以及资本项目管制的分隔，央行还没有能力一举驯服交易所和离岸利率。相比之下，央行对汇率的维稳则大开大阖。一方面在离岸时不时打出一个大波动，触发各类止损平仓和自相踩踏，另一方面通过卖美元回吸人民币，把离岸人民币拆借利率逼高。

央行抽离筹码逼高利率，和用抬高利率的方法吓阻对手卖空本币，看似都是利率走高，但动作和意义截然不同，前者是主动出击，后者是自残恐吓。主动出击的自信，来自央行相对离岸人民币规模大好几倍的外汇储备量，而自残恐吓往往没用。汇率下跌往往是断崖式，利率就算抬高到年化365%的成本，能比得上汇率一天下跌20%的收益？

这时候央行又发现，自己通过卖出美元抽回的人民币，居然又被境内银行通过给离岸银行放贷的方式给创造出来了。央行抽水，境内银行又往外放水，可央行是在卖美元缩着自己的表，在岸银行反而开心地放贷扩上了表，连美元都不要，为了收离岸的高利息，当上了境外银行的“最终贷款人”，对境外银行扮演了央行公开市场操作的“逆回购”角色，这还了得。于是我们又看到，路透说央行把离岸在岸的拆借渠道给收窄了。

现在还剩下人民币跨境汇款一条路。10月份人民币跨境流动为流出811亿，一举扭转了5月以来的净流入，但看来还是不解离岸之渴。而美元则流入了1191亿人民币等值。这个渠道也在央行的监管之下，包括严查单据等等，但应该不会堵死，毕竟这代表了实体经济的需求。而且，如果这个也堵死了，人民币跨境使用不就回到了原点了么。

目前离岸市场规模不大，和外汇储备比起来相形见绌，央行想要让这个市场听自己的话，只要像做市商一样低买高卖来回操作即可，如果势头非常不利，空头喊声很大，那就把离岸人民币都收回来放到自己兜里。扑克都没有了还打什么德州，人民币都没有了还怎么贬值？人民币胜啊。

可央行追求的人民币国际化呢？离岸存款规模是大家非常看重的指标，离岸市场之间的排行打榜，很多时候都在比谁的存款多，毕竟没有货币就没有交易，有了货币才有借贷、股票、衍生产品等等。没有了境外存款，还怎么发点心债？如果央行想让离岸市场听自己的指挥，在 20万亿人民币等值外汇储备的条件下，几万亿人民币应该就是极限了。

如果离岸人民币存款达到了20万亿，会是怎样的情况？考虑到离岸存款是离岸银行人民币信用扩张的结果，20万亿离岸存款，应该对应离岸银行在境内银行几万亿甚至十万亿的人民币存款。央行想在这样的实力对比下保卫汇率，可就比现在3万亿美元外汇储备对2万亿离岸人民币要困难很多了，而且那个时候，在岸人民币存款也肯定会加入购汇阵营，央行压力更大。

谁让央行陷入了汇率稳定和人民币国际化的矛盾中？目前大家对人民币的波动还不太习惯，200点的波动就被看作大涨跌。可是美元人民币的汇率是6.4000的数量级，200点的波动还不到0.5%，放在欧元兑美元上，也就是美元从1.1000跌到了1.1050的样子，如果这就算大波动，那欧元兑美元恐怕天天都在大波动了。

这种不习惯，体现在市场操作上，就是羊群效应下的恐慌操作。人民币贬了2%，完了，排队买美元去。但在国际汇率市场上，2%的波动每个月都会发生，并没有看到欧美日各国民众被汇率波动搞得焦头烂额。不过话又说回来，如果汇率总是没有波动，人们也就永远不会习惯波动，但现在一旦波动又会草木皆兵。看来放开的力道还真是需要拿捏。

过去的数年间，人民币的稳定升值一直是人民币国际化的原因之一，市场主体因高利率和升值前景愿意持有人民币。现在人民币可能还处于这一状态，但它必将进入一个新的阶段。SDR和国内投资市场开放，都会使国外的真实需求增加，使人民币进一步流出。但流出意味着在市场预期扭转时，离岸人民币下跌的力道更大，卖单规模更巨，央行更难守住。人民币的汇率将被国际化的人民币市场决定，而不再是稳定的升值预期推动人民币的国际化。

所以未来的格局，恐怕是在曲折中前行。央行肯定不会让人民币国际化停止，跨境收支的人民币使用要达到1/3，是十三五期末的目标，而现在是1/4。但离岸的流量和存量的每一步增长，都意味着央行维稳能力的削弱，央行能够平复的波动越来越小，或许在未来会有更大的波动。央行也许会花费更大的成本和力气来稳定汇率，但这都只是权宜之计，目的是为市场主体争取时间。人民币最后是一个闪电牛熊的市场，还是一个温和波动的市场，前途掌握在市场主体自己手上。

The movie "A Chinese Odyssey" features a character named "Zhi Zun Bao," played by Stephen Chow. He falls in love with the fairy Zi Xia. However, due to a series of unfortunate events, Zi Xia is captured by the Bull Demon King and is about to be married to him. Zhi Zun Bao faces a dilemma: either transform into Sun Wukong to defeat the Bull Demon King but sacrifice the chance to be with Zi Xia, or remain in the mortal world, unable to prevent the Bull Demon King's victory. What choice should Zhi Zun Bao make?

In the movie, Zhi Zun Bao chooses to become Sun Wukong. He defeats the Bull Demon King using his abilities, rescues Zi Xia, but gets punished by the magical circlet. He has to release his attachment and accompany Tang Seng on the journey to the West to retrieve Buddhist scriptures. There are multiple ways to interpret this film, and the author's perspective is just one of them. The complexity of the plot lies in the conflict Zhi Zun Bao faces.

Similarly, the central bank faces a dilemma akin to that of Zhi Zun Bao and Sun Wukong. The central bank desires a stable international presence for the Chinese yuan, yet to achieve stability in its home market, it discovers that the yuan cannot be fully internationalized, similar to how Sun Wukong saves Zi Xia but must embark on the journey to the West. However, if the yuan were to be fully internationalized, it might lose its stability, just as Zhi Zun Bao might lose Zi Xia if he doesn't embark on the journey. For further details, please see the breakdown below.

Entities in the offshore market behave and anticipate differently from those in the onshore market. Whether in terms of exchange rate fluctuations or interest rate changes, they operate independently. Taking interest rates as an example, those familiar with the Chinese interest rate and exchange rate markets are aware of the three kingdoms of interbank borrowing rates: interbank borrowing rates are relatively stable, and the central bank's influence is direct. Offshore yuan and exchange-traded yuan borrowing rates often fluctuate significantly or diverge, often not aligning with the central bank's rate targets.

The reason behind this phenomenon is that the central bank deals directly with banks in the onshore interbank market. Repo operations or SLO (standing lending facility) transactions allow the central bank to exercise control. However, regarding interest rates, due to the separation between onshore and offshore markets and capital account controls, the central bank lacks the capacity to fully control offshore and exchange-traded rates. In comparison, the central bank can more extensively manage exchange rates. By creating occasional substantial fluctuations offshore, triggering various stop-loss and closure orders, and by selling US dollars to absorb yuan, offshore yuan borrowing rates are pushed higher.

The central bank's active interventions and strategies to manipulate rates are confident moves, supported by the central bank's foreign exchange reserves several times larger than the offshore yuan market's size. However, the central bank also realizes that the absorbed yuan can be recreated by onshore banks through lending to offshore banks, creating a complex dynamic.

The central bank's pursuit of both exchange rate stability and yuan internationalization leads to a paradox. The fluctuations in the yuan's value might be unusual for some, where a 200-point fluctuation is considered significant. Yet, the yuan-dollar exchange rate is in the range of 6.4000, making a 200-point fluctuation less than 0.5%. In comparison, such fluctuations are common in the international currency market.

This unfamiliarity results in herd behavior, inducing panic. A 2% depreciation might lead people to rush to buy US dollars. However, in the international exchange market, a 2% fluctuation happens frequently, and people in the West are not as disturbed by these variations. But on the other hand, if the exchange rate remains stable, people never get used to fluctuations. Thus, a delicate balance is necessary in releasing controls.

Over the past few years, the yuan's stable appreciation has been a factor driving its internationalization. High-interest rates and appreciation prospects have motivated market entities to hold yuan. However, as the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) and domestic investment markets open, real demand from abroad will increase, prompting more yuan outflows. These outflows, however, might mean that during periods of market sentiment reversal, the offshore yuan could experience more significant depreciation, making it difficult for the central bank to control.

Thus, the yuan's exchange rate will be determined by the international yuan market rather than the expectation of stable appreciation. The central bank will strive to continue yuan internationalization, aiming for cross-border yuan usage to reach 1/3 of total usage by the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan (compared to the current 1/4). However, every step of growth in offshore flows and stock signifies the weakening of the central bank's stabilization capacity. The central bank might expend more resources to stabilize the rate, but it's only a temporary solution to buy time for market entities. The future of the yuan's market is in the hands of market participants themselves.

In conclusion, the path forward might be winding. The central bank will continue yuan internationalization, and cross-border yuan usage is expected to reach 1/3. However, as the offshore market grows, the central bank's capacity to stabilize the yuan's value diminishes, and larger fluctuations might be expected. The central bank might spend more effort and resources to stabilize the exchange rate, but this is a temporary strategy. The fate of the yuan market, whether it's characterized by volatility or stability, lies with market participants.