原创 2015-12-25 季天鹤央行观察央行观察

季天鹤方正中期研究院研究员、央行观察专栏作家

供给侧改革，使得货币在供给与需求的不停匹配中，更大规模更加频繁地自发流动，也会使银行的贷款资产迭代加速更具弹性，未来将是一片勃勃生机......

在《真实经济中的消费和投资》和《如何透视只有钱的世界？》两篇文章中，我们分别讨论了纯粹的实体经济，以及纯粹的货币运转。本文我们讨论一个真实的世界，即供给侧改革的货币图景。

供给侧改革前传：需求的变化供给和需求不是分割的而是相互结合的。供给是为了满足需求，而满足需求需要适合的供给。供给侧改革要求对供给侧进行调整，但往哪个方向调整？这里面就要重新涉及到需求。而需求问题有三个：存在的需求没有得到满足、不该存在的需求被过度满足、原先存在的需求消失。

没有被充分满足的需求太多。医疗、教育、交通等等不胜枚举。从货币的角度看，供不应求反映在投资的高回报率，即投资时花出去的钱能在未来带回更多的钱。但在供给不足，价格又被管制的状况下，投资回报率在一定程度上被扭曲。在医疗行业被反映为以药养医和挂号黄牛大行其道，在教育行业体现为课外补习班层出不穷，在交通领域体现为票贩子屡禁不绝。

原本需求方付出的钱可以完整地流入供给方，但在价格管制的情况下，需求方付出的钱被强制分流给了市场定价的第三方。价格管制看似在价格上便宜了，但造成了资源的浪费，无论是安排一批人打击票贩子，还是把学校的教室空着跑到外面租教室讲课，都是浪费。更重要的是，由于需求方的钱没有充分流入供给侧，因而削弱了供给侧自发扩大供给的能力。

除了未被满足的需求依然存在之外，另一个问题便是不该存在的需求被过度满足。这里集中体现在公款消费方面。如果把钱的流动比喻为洗衣机里水的流动，那么洗衣机里面一般有个放洗衣粉的槽，洗衣服的时候需要先往这个槽里放一些洗衣粉，然后开机，这时洗衣机进来的水会经过这个槽，把洗衣粉冲到滚筒里，能够更好的洗衣服。

财政的支出，就如同让水从洗衣机滚筒里面跑到这个槽里过一下。财政的收支有时如同有洗衣粉的水，可以给经济带来活力。水从洗衣粉槽流过，看似多拐了一道，但流过之后的水就是带有洗衣粉的水，洗衣服的效果会有提升。同样，有些投资通过财政来做，会比私人投资更有效果。即使投资结果一样，Musk也可以开发出航天火箭，但政府的融资成本，恐怕要比Musk低，因此财务上也有优势。

但公款消费恐怕不是上面的情况。如前所述，财政收支让钱动起来，从一些人那里跑到另一些人那里。但无偿拨付和公款消费在钱的角度上都是支出，但对收款人而言，前者不需要拿某些东西交换，而后者则需要交换，也就是需要供给一些东西用来换钱。公款消费有点像在洗衣粉槽里放了个手绢，水不停地经过这个手绢，把手绢洗得巨干净，甚至都洗坏了。

这就一下子涉及到供给侧。如果没有公款餐饮消费，那么迎合公款餐饮的餐馆也不会开张。当然，公款餐饮的餐馆也创造了GDP，收到了钱还会继续支出到经济的其他部分，看上去整个经济是欣欣向荣的，奢侈品店是四处扩张的，人们就业也是一片大好。但问题在于，公款消费的钱从哪里来，而迎合公款消费的生产要素能不能做些别的？

公款消费的资金来源，要么是税收，要么是债务，要么是印钞。如果税收过高，超过人们愿意交的部分，那么人们会离开或者减少经济活动避免税收，在导致税收减少的同时，经济活动也会减少。债务是政府作为融资人和其他出资人协商的结果，协商的对象是利率。但债务的累积会导致信用风险，而政府为了还债要增加税收，会导致前面提到的税收问题。而如果政府通过印钞来解决还债和支出问题，又会引发通胀。

除了对钱产生影响外，从实体的角度看，迎合公款消费的生产要素能干很多事情。很多厨师都去了公款消费的餐厅，那么其他私人部门就消费不起这些厨师的手艺了。很多饭店的大厅都用来举办会议了，那么其他私人部分就没有机会举办自己的活动了。不该产生的需求被过度满足，意味着供给侧的很多要素集中用于满足这一需求，而不能用于满足其他需求。这块需求不消失，随之而生的供给也不会消失。

除了没被满足的需求和不该被满足的需求，我们最后来看原有需求的消失。这部分需求主要体现在房地产以及相关行业的过剩上。过剩意味着，钱的流入不足以带走足够多的产品，而流入的钱少，流出的钱也少，过剩行业所在地区的经济活动都会受到影响。如果过剩伴随着债务的上升，那么没有足够多的钱流入用来还债，就会导致债务高企和坏帐等问题。

对银行坏账而言，由于银行在放贷的同时创造了钱，当年放贷时的钱已经在项目建设中花出去给了社会的其它主体了。因此银行坏账，意味着银行不能有效把当初创造的钱消灭掉。减计坏帐会造成亏损和资本减少。如果不减计坏帐，但资本不变，资本充足率固定，就无法扩张新贷款。而如果想要补充资本，最好是能有好的估值，但坏账很多的情况下银行很难有好的估值。当然，问题的关键还是出现在坏账上，而坏账的解决来自于过剩的解决。

供给侧改革后的景象供给侧改革后，我们将会在三个方向上看到变化，一个是原先不能被满足的需求开始得到满足，一个是原先不该存在的需求被打压，一个是需求消失导致的库存被消化。需求得到满足，意味着钱加大了流动，或者更多货币创造出来用于流动。这种钱的流动，对应着生产要素的重新配给。

原先不该存在的需求被打压，表现在八项规定的落实上。生活在北京的人很容易体会到餐馆便宜了、团购券多了、包间好订了，也很容易看到过去很多超高档的餐馆倒闭或者转型了。餐饮业确实经历了阵痛，但迅速有新的供给形成替代，而且立刻就形成了排队等位的盛况，这本身也是一种供给侧要素的重新配置。在钱的意义上，这表现为原先需要财政人为干预的货币流动，变成了人们自发产生的货币流动。干预和自发的意义，恰如一个需要心脏起搏器的人和一个心脏自己正常跳动的人的区别，虽然血压一样，看上去两个人都活蹦乱跳，但两个人的健康程度完全不同。

库存被消化，如同原先堵塞的马路重新通车，钱重新流入和流出，对银行而言也意味着收回贷款。尽管在房地产的情况下，原先的开发商贷款被居民购房贷款所置换，贷款总规模可能不变，但原先集中的高风险的贷款，一下子变成了分散的、有抵押的、较低风险的贷款，对银行可谓是一种解脱。当然，或许过剩企业破产重组，钱再也不会流入这个企业，但由于生产要素的重新配置，钱在其他行业中的流动会变得活跃，好比带着坏死组织的人只能躺在病床上，但切掉了坏死组织，人反而能活蹦乱跳起来。

除了抵押贷款这种分散小规模的业务兴起之外，还会有更多的微融资和微投资涌现出来。每一次众筹其实都是一笔融资。每一个淘宝店和微信店，每一个“在行”和“领路”上作咨询的个人，每一个滴滴专车上的专车司机，其实都是一个小小的投资项目，只不过这里是自己用时间和钱给自己投资。如果说我们曾看到某些投行随着大国企上市的结束而转型，那么未来我们恐怕也会看到某些银行会因为大贷款项目逐渐减少而变化。当然，这样的变化已经开始。

如果把满足新需求、去掉不合理需求和告别老需求结合在一起，我们发现，在过剩的时代启动互联网+和产业升级，或许是唯一的选择。当房地产和旧经济依然火爆的时候，互联网+恐怕没有房地产来钱快，大众创业反而会导致本来就很活跃的经济变得过热。而反观现在，过剩领域积累了大量生产要素，无论是房子还是人。在这样的条件下，大众创业和互联网+对这些生产要素造成了自然而然的吸纳，反映在就业上就是伴随经济增速放缓，劳动力市场并未有明显的恶化。离开旧经济的人们，面临的不是无处投奔的苦闷，而是广阔天地下大有作为。

在货币的图景上，我们将看到货币重新活动起来，流向四面八方和祖国各地。这种流动更多体现为自发流动，而不是财政干预下和公款消费带来的流动。银行的货币创造和货币消失也会更为频繁，因为居民会增加负债，而企业也得以减少负债，尽管存量是不变的，但银行的资产将不是一个个僵硬的不良贷款块，而是此消彼长弹性伸缩的新旧信贷流。伴随着货币更大规模来去生灭的，也将是实体商品和服务更大规模的生产和消费，中国经济的好戏还远没有结束。(作者感谢方正中期期货有限公司的大力支持)

Supply-side reform, enabling currency to flow more extensively and freely in the continuous matching of supply and demand, accelerating the iterative and flexible evolution of bank loan assets, and ushering in a future of vigorous growth…

In the articles "Consumption and Investment in the Real Economy" and "How to Perceive a World with Only Money?" we discussed the pure real economy and the pure circulation of money, respectively. In this article, we explore a real-world scenario: the monetary landscape of supply-side reform.

Prologue to Supply-side Reform: Changes in Demand Supply and demand are not separate but interconnected. Supply exists to meet demand, and meeting demand requires appropriate supply. Supply-side reform requires adjustments to the supply side, but in which direction should these adjustments be made? This involves revisiting the issue of demand. There are three issues related to demand: unsatisfied existing demand, excessive satisfaction of unnecessary demand, and the disappearance of previously existing demand.

There are many unsatisfied demands. Medical care, education, transportation, and more. From a monetary perspective, inadequate supply relative to demand is reflected in high returns on investment, meaning that money invested now can bring back more money in the future. However, in situations where supply is inadequate and prices are controlled, the return on investment is distorted to some extent. In the medical industry, this is reflected in rampant profiteering from medicines and hospital registration, in education as an abundance of extracurricular tutoring, and in transportation as a proliferation of scalpers for tickets.

Originally, money paid by the demand side could flow directly to the supply side. However, in situations of price controls and inadequate supply, money paid by the demand side is forcibly redirected to third parties who set market prices. Price controls might seem to make things cheaper, but they lead to resource waste, whether it's deploying a team to combat scalpers or renting external classrooms to teach instead of using empty school classrooms. More importantly, because the money from the demand side doesn't fully reach the supply side, it weakens the supply side's ability to spontaneously expand its offerings.

Apart from unsatisfied demands, another issue is excessive satisfaction of unnecessary demand. This is especially evident in public expenditure. If the flow of money is likened to the flow of water in a washing machine, then the washing machine typically has a compartment for detergent. When washing clothes, you need to put some detergent in this compartment before starting the machine. The water that comes into the washing machine then passes through this compartment, carrying the detergent into the drum, which enhances the washing effect.

Government spending is similar to letting water run into that compartment in the washing machine drum. The revenue and expenses of the government sometimes resemble water with detergent, bringing vitality to the economy. The water flowing through the detergent compartment might seem to take a detour, but the water that comes out is water infused with detergent. Some investments made through public finance are more effective than private investments. Even if the investment results are the same, Musk might develop a space rocket, but government financing costs are likely to be lower than Musk's, giving the government a financial advantage.

However, public consumption might not fit this analogy. As mentioned earlier, the flow of revenue and expenses sets money in motion, moving from some people to others. Gratuitous allocations and public expenditures both appear as expenses from a monetary perspective, but for the recipients, the former doesn't require an exchange of something in return, while the latter does – in other words, it requires supplying something to exchange for money. Public consumption is like putting a handkerchief in the detergent compartment of the washing machine – water continuously flows through, washing the handkerchief thoroughly, perhaps even to the point of damaging it.

This immediately involves the supply side. Without public dining expenses, restaurants catering to these expenses wouldn't even open. Of course, restaurants catering to public dining expenses also contribute to GDP, and the money they receive will continue to flow into other parts of the economy. On the surface, the economy appears vibrant, luxury stores are expanding everywhere, and employment seems promising. However, the question arises: where does the money for public consumption come from, and can the production elements catering to public consumption be used differently?

The funds for public consumption come from either taxes, debt, or printing money. If taxes are too high, exceeding what people are willing to pay, they might reduce economic activity to evade taxes, leading to both reduced tax revenue and economic activity. Debt is the result of negotiations between the government as a borrower and other contributors, and the negotiation focus is the interest rate. However, accumulating debt can lead to credit risks, and to repay the debt, the government might increase taxes, which brings us back to the earlier tax issue. If the government resorts to printing money to solve debt and expenditure problems, it can lead to inflation.

Apart from affecting money, from a tangible perspective, elements catering to public consumption can do many things. Many chefs are drawn to restaurants catering to public consumption, leaving other private sectors unable to afford their skills. Many restaurants' halls are used for hosting meetings, depriving other private sectors of the opportunity to hold their own events. Excessive satisfaction of unnecessary demand concentrates many production elements on satisfying this demand, leaving them unavailable to meet other demands. This demand doesn't disappear, and the supply that emerges alongside it won't disappear either.

In addition to unsatisfied demands and excessive satisfaction of unnecessary demand, the last issue is the disappearance of original demand. This primarily manifests in the surplus of the real estate and related industries. Surplus indicates that the money flowing in isn't sufficient to take away enough products, and with less money flowing in, there's also less flowing out. Economic activities in areas with surplus industries are affected. If surplus is accompanied by rising debt, there won't be enough money flowing in to repay debt, leading to problems like high debt and bad debts.

For bank bad debts, since banks create money when they lend, the money lent in the past has already been spent on projects by other entities in society. Therefore, bank bad debts mean that banks can't effectively eliminate the money they originally created. Writing off bad debts leads to losses and capital reduction. If bad debts aren't written off, but capital remains unchanged and capital adequacy remains fixed, it's impossible to expand new loans. And if banks want to raise capital, it's best to have good valuations. However, with many bad debts, banks will find it difficult to achieve favorable valuations. Of course, the key issue lies in bad debts, and their resolution comes from addressing surplus.

The Scene After Supply-side Reform After supply-side reform, we will see changes in three directions: unsatisfied demand will start to be met, unnecessary demand will be suppressed, and demand-driven inventory will be consumed. Satisfying demand means that money will flow more and more, or more currency will be created for circulation. This kind of money flow corresponds to the reallocation of production factors.

Unnecessary demand will be suppressed, as reflected in the implementation of the eight-point code of conduct. People living in Beijing can easily perceive cheaper restaurant prices, more group purchase vouchers, and easier restaurant reservations. Many high-end restaurants have closed down or transformed. The catering industry indeed experienced pains, but rapid replacements formed, and queues and waiting times immediately appeared, demonstrating a reconfiguration of supply-side elements. In monetary terms, this reflects a shift from currency flows requiring fiscal intervention to currency flows generated spontaneously. The meaning of intervention and spontaneity is akin to the difference between a person who needs a pacemaker and one with a naturally functioning heart. Although both might have similar blood pressure levels and appear lively, their health statuses are fundamentally different.

Inventory will be consumed, similar to opening up previously blocked roads for traffic. Money will flow in and out again, leading to banks recovering loans. Although in real estate cases, developer loans might be replaced by residential mortgages, and the total loan amount might remain unchanged, the concentrated high-risk loans will transform into distributed, collateral-backed, and lower-risk loans, providing relief for banks. While certain surplus companies might go bankrupt or restructure, money won't flow into these businesses anymore. Yet, due to the reconfiguration of production elements, money's flow in other industries will become more active. This is like a person with necrotic tissue – once the necrotic tissue is removed, the person can spring back to life.

Apart from the rise of dispersed, small-scale mortgage loans, there will also be a surge in micro-financing and micro-investing. Each crowdfunding campaign is a form of financing. Each Taobao store, WeChat store, each individual providing consultations on platforms like "Zai Xing" and "Ling Lu," each driver of a Didi special car – all represent small investment projects, only these are self-investments using time and money. If we've seen investment banks transition after the end of listing large state-owned enterprises, we might also witness certain banks undergoing changes as large loan projects gradually decline. Of course, these changes are already underway.

When we combine the satisfaction of new demands, the elimination of unreasonable demands, and the farewell to old demands, we find that launching Internet+ and upgrading industries in the era of surplus might be the only choice. When real estate and the old economy were still lucrative, Internet+ perhaps couldn't generate quick profits like real estate, and mass entrepreneurship might even have overheated a pre-existing vibrant economy. But now, with surplus resources in both real estate and human capital, initiatives like mass entrepreneurship and Internet+ naturally absorb these resources. This is reflected in employment trends – as economic growth slows down, the labor market hasn't notably deteriorated. People leaving the old economy don't face a desperate search for refuge; instead, they have a vast realm in which to excel.

In the monetary landscape, we'll witness currency coming to life, flowing in all directions and throughout the country. This flow will be more spontaneous, rather than driven by fiscal interventions or public expenditures. The creation and disappearance of bank currency will also occur more frequently, as residents increase their liabilities and businesses reduce theirs. Although the stock remains unchanged, bank assets will no longer be stiff blocks of non-performing loans; they'll be dynamic, expanding, contracting flows of old and new credit. Alongside the greater circulation of currency, we'll observe the expanded production and consumption of tangible goods and services. The captivating performance of China's economy is far from over. (The author thanks Fangzheng Zhongqi Futures Co., Ltd. for their generous support.)