原创 2015-12-10 季天鹤央行观察央行观察

季天鹤方正中期研究院研究员、央行观察专栏作家

在上一篇《真实经济中的消费和投资》中，我们分析了一个没有钱的世界。这一篇中，我们讨论只有钱的世界，首先分析日常视角下的货币储蓄和货币投资，再考虑货币流转，最后讨论中国的现实。

日常视角下的储蓄与投资

一个人得到钱可以有三种用途：一是花出去了再也回不来了；二是留在自己手里什么也不做；三是进行一种特殊的支出，这种支出在未来会带回更多钱。上述三种，对应了实体经济中的消费品流的消耗、消费品流的留存以及投资品流。如果采用实体分析的消费－投资－储蓄视角，把上面的第二种和第三种都叫做投资，而把货币收入流中去掉上述第一种后剩余的部分叫做储蓄，我们也可以得到“投资＝储蓄”。

不过在日常中，人们只把上述的第三种，即能带来回报的特殊支出叫做“投资”，而把上述的第二点即“货币的留存”看作“储蓄”。这种“日常”视角下，货币的投资当然就和货币的储蓄无关了，而是和上述的第一种即货币的花销并列，组成货币收入的几种用途。在这种日常视角下，“投资＝储蓄”的等式也就不存在了，反而是“货币收入＝货币花销＋货币储蓄＋货币投资”。

货币花销和货币投资，都是把货币收入继续支出的操作，而货币储蓄，则使一定时期内，货币收入和货币支出发生了差异。考虑两个人甲和乙。甲收到100元，其中白给乙30元，借给乙50元，自己留存20元，则甲的支出仅为80元，而这80元形成了乙的收入，即使乙把所有的收入都用来支出，最多也只能是80元。

上面描述的货币储蓄和货币支出（包括货币花销和货币投资），会使每个市场主体所拥有的货币量会发生变化，但所有主体拥有的货币总量规模不变。货币在“你给我、我给你”的过程中，只是发生了转手。货币流转导致的变化，在流量上是总规模和内部结构，在存量上则只有结构变化，而没有总量变化。

三个虚拟国家的货币流转

我们考虑三个国家：爱花销国、爱储蓄国和爱投资国。每个国家的货币总量都是1亿元，每个国家1万人，每人都有1万元。但不同的是，爱花销国把全部货币都用来花销，爱储蓄国把全部货币都用来储蓄，爱投资国把全部的货币都用来投资。这里的花销、储蓄和投资都是前面提到的“日常视角”。我们会看到什么情况呢？

爱花销国人每人有1万元，全部用来花销。这一集体动作使1亿元的货币发生了流转。当然，由于每个人花销的收款人不同，因此花销后每个人的货币存量未必还是1万元，但货币存量总规模还是1亿元。爱储蓄国的每个人都有1万元，由于全都用来储蓄，货币不会有任何流转。而爱投资国人集体投资后，使1亿元货币发生流转，货币存量规模还是1亿元，并且在未来随着投资的回报，还会有新一轮货币流转。

上面的货币流转还没有考虑其发生的频率。对于爱储蓄国人而言，由于根本没有货币流转，因此频率为每年0次。而对于爱花销国和爱投资国而言，如果每月集体花销/投资1次，每年流转的总货币规模为12亿元，而如果每天都花销/投资一次，每年流转的货币规模为365亿元，比每月集体花销/投资1次要多很多。

而如果每个爱花销国人只是把自己货币存量的一半用于花销，花销频率为每月1次，那么一年中流转的货币就不是12亿，而是6亿。但如果每个爱花销国人只是把自己当期货币收入的一半用来花销，第一个月时流转1亿元，第二个月就变成了5千万，第三个月就变成了2500万，越来越少。而从每个人的货币存量角度来看，留存而不被花销的货币越来越多。

如果想要打破流转货币规模的递减，人们可以降低储蓄提高花销，比如在每月2500万流转规模时，转变为将全部货币收入用来花销，或者之前攒下的存量货币也用来花销，则原有的流转规模就得以维持，甚至扩大。另一种办法，就是印钱，即创造货币。最为人所知的创造货币方法便是印钞。印钞者可以在其他人的货币流转规模递减时，支出新发行的货币，货币流转规模得以维持，但货币存量的总规模，也因为新发行的货币而增加。

从三个国家的例子中我们看到，尽管每个国家货币存量的总规模不变，但1年中发生的货币流转规模则会有很大不同，取决于人们愿意将多少收入重新支出出去。储蓄国人是最极端的，完全没有货币流转，而爱花销国人则可以让货币有较大规模的流转，花销意愿/储蓄意愿不同，货币流转规模也不同。而花销频率也对一定时期内货币流转规模有影响。

而反观理论中“货币平均流通速度”这一概念，我们也不免有些疑惑。在很多货币被用来储蓄，一段时间里从未流动的情况下，这部分货币存量要不要被纳入货币平均流通速度的计算里，就很值得商榷。一个50人的班级只有30人参加考试，但是把这30个人的分数加总，用全班人数50去除，也能得到一个全班平均成绩，这和货币平均流通速度一样，数学上都成立，但问题出在计算掩盖了更重要的事实。50人的平均成绩掩盖了20人没参加考试这一情况，货币平均流通速度掩盖了大量货币没有参加流动这一情况。而为什么有20人没来参加考试，为什么有大量货币不参加流动，这恰恰是需要探究的问题。

中国的现实

中国的货币现实是货币流转与货币创造的交织。人民银行在发行纸币和硬币，银行在创造各种存款。社会主体一方面获得了越来越多的货币，另一方面也在不停留存和支出这些货币，支出的方式包括不需要回报的花销，以及期待回报的投资。但在目前136万亿货币总量中，真正动起来的恐怕只是一部分，很多都是趴在银行帐上不动，例如定期存款。

存款并未被银行用来放贷，银行在放贷时是创造新存款货币。银行贷款和P2P贷款的不同，在于银行贷款创造出了新存款货币，存款货币规模增加，而P2P贷款则是把一个人的存款货币转给另一个人，存款货币规模不变。两者虽然都被称作贷款，对于融资人而言都是增加了存款货币可以用来支出，但这部分存款货币的来源并不相同：一个是创造，一个是转移。

中国的货币现实是高货币储蓄与高货币创造并存。中国每年新创造超过15万亿的货币，这些新增货币和原有货币一起，一方面被用于流通，一方面被用于储蓄。前面我们已经看到，如果人们固定地将一部分收入用于储蓄，如果货币存量不变，则一定时期内货币流动规模将逐年递减，而维持货币流动规模将需要每年有足够的新增货币创造出来，可以说，创造货币满足了人们留存货币和支付货币的需要。

高储蓄并不意味着低利率。这里的储蓄指的不是“储蓄=投资”中的储蓄，而是“货币收入=货币花销+货币储蓄+货币投资”中的储蓄。人们都把钱存在银行，并不愿意把钱借给企业，造成了看似钱很多，但钱并没有“融通”起来的现象，什么叫“融通”起来？最新的例子就是9月份的公司债牛市，人们纷纷抢购公司债券，把利率压得很低。

用于购债的存款，本来都在投资者的保证金存款账户里，如果用来购债，投资者的保证金存款变成了债券发行人的银行存款，货币总量虽然不变，但购债的踊跃会降低利率水平。降低利率的原因，是出资人主动出资的动作，而并不是其原本持有的货币存量。这有点像踢足球，11个跑动很慢的球员，未必踢得过5个跑动迅速的球员。球员虽多，却不去踢球，也就进不了球。

财政政策可以使更多货币流动起来。财政收入的来源，一方面是通过发债给银行创造货币获得，另一方面通过收税或发债使一些人的存量货币转移给自己而获得。财政对于货币的运用，第一方面是作为花销转移给另一些人，第二方面是是在国库中累积，第三方面是通过债权或股权投资给另一些人，这也对应了前面提到的货币花销、货币储蓄和货币投资。

积极的财政政策，首先表现为将累积在国库中的货币花出去，以致国库存款的下降。目前财政性存款约在4-5万元间，通过盘活存量来降低这部分余额，可以使其他市场主体持有的货币量增加，造成更多的货币流动。其次是通过发债创造更多货币，并且通过收税和发债使一些市场主体的货币动起来，转移到其他市场主体那里。

这里稍微讨论一下国库存款银行定存的操作。在我国，这一操作有助于缓解银行间流动性的紧张，因为国库开在央行，银行间流动性指的是银行在央行的存款，国库存款银行定存意味着国库存款减少、银行在央行存款增加。但这笔存款本身并不会被银行投放到实体经济当中，因为实体经济主体并不在央行开户。银行间流动性改善使银行增加放贷，是用新创造的货币给实体经济，而不是国库存款。

货币政策可以创造出更多货币来流动。无论是直接的数量型调节，还是通过降低或提高利率水平增加或减少贷款，由于贷款本身要么意味着新货币的创造或原有货币的转移，货币政策最终还是会落实在货币的流动规模上。央行传统的方式是通过银行扩大货币存量，主要方式是银行放贷，但过去也有另一种重要的货币投放形式，也就是外汇结汇。

扩大货币存量成为促进货币流动规模的主力，其背景也是在于人们偏爱储蓄，愿意把钱攥在手里，这既给了货币以创造的条件，本身也是对更多货币的需求。要回答人们为什么喜欢持有储蓄，自然要从货币的花销和货币的投资来看。比如，人们的货币花销动力不足，认为目前没有想买的东西，不愿意扩大消费。

除此之外，人们本可以通过投资的方式，在当期支出货币，而在未来取得投资本金和回报，用于未来花销，但为什么人们喜欢把钱攥在手里呢？显然，如果融资人中混杂了很多财务造假者，如果监管当局不能有效对违规者施加惩罚，如果破产者的资产不能通过司法处置充分变现，如果融资担保方今天打保票明天就跑路，这样的投资环境当然无法让出资人愿意出资。

所以中国的金融体系有两个现象，一个是存款很多，一个是炒股很热。究其原因，或许在于这是投资者真能看明白的两个产品。存款没风险，收益率低，而股市虽如赌场，但大家看得很清楚，大不了少押。之前的信托等产品火热，或许是因为刚性兑付让人们在主观上产生了“自己看清楚了”的错觉，因此纷纷买入，但现在违约接连发生，人们意识到自己原来并没有看清楚状况，在这种情况下，人们选择的不是想要看清楚，而是拒之门外。

还有一个需要解决的“供给侧”问题，在于广大的债券市场实质上被隔离于普通投资者之外。许许多多人们能看清的企业债、银行债、证券公司债都只能在银行间市场发行和交易，普通投资者要么只能通过基金来购买，要么就根本不能购买。于是我们看到了尴尬的景象：一方面银行不停创造新货币买入债券，另一方面普通投资者持有大量货币却大喊资产配置荒。

一个监管以外的P2P平台动辄能有几亿甚至百亿的规模，背后的投资人却没有通过正规的银行间市场提供融资的资格。传统的所谓“债券市场规模很大，零售投资者规模太小”的理由，恐怕已经并不成立。中国的散户很有钱，并且很愿意主动投资，这是一个现实，需要把握利用，不应削足适履。而从P2P平台雨后春笋般成立来看，IT方面的技术应该也不是障碍，何况债券市场机构已经运行几十年，技术必然早已完备。

银行在这一块儿有很多钱可赚。如果股票市场有美国存托凭证，让美国投资者可以认购国外股票的收益权，为什么中国不能有银行间市场债券存托凭证，让交易所投资者可以获得银行间市场债券的收益权呢？谁创设这个收益权谁就能得一笔收入：银行资金通过中介机构进入交易所，交易所资金也可以通过中介进入债市。

此外，国内银行也可以搞柜台债市场，把自己持有的债券按照现行价格卖给零售投资者，既能缩表而节约资本消耗，又能让债券在目前低收益率状态下释放出资本利得，以弥补坏账带来的利润下滑。一个人的利息收入是另一个人的利息费用，但估值增加让所有人都赚钱，这个技巧一定要使用起来。

除了上述可能的办法之外，债券市场正进行着中国特色的增量解法，即互联网+信贷资产证券化。汇金的债券还是银行们在认购，但散户们则可以投资各种白条类ABS，可谓是机构和机构跳舞，散户和散户麻将。但更有好的模式，还是在债券市场目前的放开大潮中，既让发行人有更多的融资选择，同时也给投资人更多投资选择。

In the previous article "Consumption and Investment in the Real Economy," we analyzed a world without money. In this article, we discuss a world with only money, first analyzing the perspectives of monetary savings and monetary investments in everyday life. Then we consider monetary circulation and finally discuss the reality in China.

Monetary Savings and Investments from an Everyday Perspective: When a person receives money, there are three possible uses: spending it and never getting it back, holding onto it without using it, or engaging in a special type of expenditure that will bring back more money in the future. These three correspond to the consumption flow's consumption, the retention of the consumption flow, and the investment flow in the real economy. From the consumption-investment-savings perspective in the physical analysis, we consider both the second and third uses as investments, while the remaining part of the monetary income flow after subtracting the first use is considered savings. Thus, we can still have "Investment = Savings."

However, in daily life, people only consider the third type, which is the special expenditure that generates returns, as "investment," and the second type, which is the "retention of money," is seen as "savings." In this "daily" perspective, monetary investment is unrelated to monetary savings, but rather aligned with the first type mentioned earlier – monetary spending – together forming several uses of monetary income. In this context, the equation "Investment = Savings" doesn't exist, but instead, it becomes "Monetary Income = Monetary Spending + Monetary Savings + Monetary Investment."

Monetary spending and monetary investment both involve the continued expenditure of monetary income, while monetary savings create a difference between monetary income and monetary spending over a certain period. Consider two individuals, A and B. A receives 100 yuan, gives 30 yuan for free to B, lends 50 yuan to B, and retains 20 yuan for themselves. A's expenditure is only 80 yuan, and this 80 yuan becomes B's income, even if B uses all their income for spending, the maximum would still be 80 yuan.

The Flow of Money in Three Virtual Countries: Let's consider three countries: Spendthriftland, Saversville, and Investorsland. Each country has a total monetary supply of 100 million yuan, with 10,000 people and 10,000 yuan per person. However, they differ in how they use money. Spendthriftland spends all its money, Saversville saves all its money, and Investorsland invests all its money. These uses of money correspond to the perspectives mentioned earlier. What will we observe?

In Spendthriftland, each person spends their 10,000 yuan. This collective action leads to a circulation of 100 million yuan. Although the retained money for each individual might not be 10,000 yuan due to different recipients of their spending, the total monetary supply remains 100 million yuan. In Saversville, each person saves their 10,000 yuan, resulting in no circulation of money. In Investorsland, people collectively invest their money, causing a circulation of 100 million yuan. The total monetary supply remains 100 million yuan, and with returns from investments, there will be new rounds of money circulation in the future.

Frequency of Money Circulation: The frequency of money circulation plays a role as well. For Saversville, since there is no money circulation at all, the frequency is 0 times per year. For Spendthriftland and Investorsland, if collective spending/investment occurs once per month, the total annual money circulation is 1.2 billion yuan. If spending/investment happens daily, the annual money circulation would be 36.5 billion yuan, much higher than the monthly frequency.

However, let's consider a scenario in Spendthriftland where each individual spends only half of their current money supply every month. In this case, the annual money circulation wouldn't be 1.2 billion yuan, but 600 million yuan. As people spend only half of their income, the circulation would be reduced over time. This is an example of how changes in individual behavior can impact the overall money circulation.

Maintaining or Increasing Circulation: To maintain or increase the circulation of money, people can lower savings and increase spending. If people in Spendthriftland start spending all their money, the existing circulation could be maintained or even expanded. Another method is printing money, which is a way to create currency. When circulation is decreasing due to changes in behavior, new currency issuance can maintain the circulation level.

China's Reality: China's monetary reality involves the interplay of money circulation and money creation. The People's Bank of China issues paper money and coins, while banks create various types of deposits. Social entities receive more money on one hand and continue to save and spend that money on the other. Spending includes both non-returnable expenditures and investments with expected returns. However, out of the total monetary supply of 136 trillion yuan, only a portion is truly active, while much remains stagnant in bank accounts, such as fixed-term deposits.

Deposits are not used by banks for lending, as bank loans create new deposit currency. The difference between bank loans and P2P loans lies in the fact that bank loans create new deposit currency, increasing the deposit money supply, while P2P loans transfer existing deposit currency from one person to another, keeping the total deposit money supply unchanged. Though both are referred to as loans and serve as financing tools, their sources of deposit currency are different: one is creation, and the other is transfer.

China's monetary reality involves high savings and high money creation. China creates over 15 trillion yuan of new currency each year. This new currency, together with the existing currency, is used both for circulation and savings. As seen earlier, if people consistently save a portion of their income, the money circulation scale would decrease over time. New currency creation satisfies the needs for both retaining and spending money.

High savings doesn't necessarily mean low interest rates. Here, savings refer to "savings" in the equation "Monetary Income = Monetary Spending + Monetary Savings + Monetary Investment." People deposit their money in banks but are unwilling to lend to businesses, resulting in a situation where money appears abundant but is not effectively used. Fiscal policy can enhance money circulation by reducing treasury deposits, which currently stand at around 40,000 to 50,000 yuan, and mobilizing these funds to increase the money held by other market entities.

Fiscal income is sourced both from issuing bonds to banks to create currency and from taxes or bond issuance, transferring existing money from some market entities to the government. The fiscal application of money involves transferring money to others, accumulating in the treasury, and investing in other market entities through bonds or equity investments. An active fiscal policy involves spending from the treasury, accumulating money in the treasury, and investing in other market entities through bonds or equity investments.

Monetary policy can create more money for circulation. Whether through direct quantity-based adjustments or by increasing or decreasing loans to impact interest rates, these monetary policy actions eventually manifest in the scale of money circulation. Central banks typically expand the money supply through bank loans. A traditional method employed by central banks is using external payments.

Conclusion: In this complex interplay of money creation and circulation, China faces the challenge of managing high savings and creating sufficient money circulation. Regulatory changes and innovative financial products could unlock more efficient money circulation, allowing individuals to diversify their investment options and use money more effectively.