2015-02-04 季天鹤央行观察

如果说不少交易员通过阅读《第一排》而躲过了2013年的钱荒，那么《信用创造、货币供求与经济结构》则是理解央行思路的最新参考。

作者：季天鹤，作者为万门大学CFO，央行观察特约专栏作家

就职于人行货政司和货政二司的李斌和伍戈的新书《信用创造、货币供求与经济结构》于2014年12月出版。该书是继货政司副司长孙国峰的《第一排》之后在同一方向上的新探索。如果说不少交易员通过阅读《第一排》而躲过了2013年的钱荒，那么《信用创造、货币供求与经济结构》则是理解央行思路的最新参考。

人民银行的分析框架和市场框架并不相同，只需打开《货币政策执行报告》和券商的分析报告即可发现。原因当然很多，但或许有两条比较重要，一是央行了解自己的口径而外界并不了解，比如作为法定准备金计算基数的“一般存款”的数量和会计具体科目，以及超额准备金的数量等。二是对于央行网站上每月公布的统计报表，市场虽然和央行有同样的信息集，但解读方法并不相同，而阅读人民银行发表的论文和专著，则可以在一定程度上帮助大家。

《信用创造、货币供求与经济结构》系统地总结了央行在先前披露在报告中的零散分析，特别是在货币创造，离岸人民币，以及货币与物价和产出的关系这三方面。在货币创造方面，作者沿袭了孙国峰先生的框架，使用资产负债表的分析方法，明确批驳了市场流行的诸如“提高法定准备金率会使准备金总量增加”、“吸收存款以发放贷款”、“为满足法定准备金需要而吸收存款”等观点。此外，作者还着重分析了同业业务如何影响货币的创造，细化了发表在2013年3季度《货币政策执行报告》关于货币创造的同业渠道的分析，对于深入认识银行间市场和实体经济融资的资金价格有非常大的帮助。

在离岸人民币方面，作者采取了和中国银行王永利先生相同的清算视角分析，指出离岸人民币存款是以境内央行和银行共同作为“央行”的境外银行信用创造的结果，境外存款汇入境内对境内货币量的影响由当前三种清算模式所决定。清算行模式下的资金流出和境内居民春节前提取大量现金的情形相似，代理行模式和银行存款流入余额宝的情形相近，而NRA模式则和银行间季末拉存款或本行内存款转帐的情形相近，因此在分析时需要具体情况具体分析。

在货币与物价和产出的关系方面，作者致力于解释高M2/GDP和低通货膨胀率这两个看似矛盾的现象，观点沿袭了央行一贯的关于融资结构以及高储蓄率的观点，即银行融资本身创造货币，而无中介的融资在创造信用的同时并不创造新货币而仅是货币的转移，高储蓄率减少货币流转而使当期新增货币和GDP脱钩，而储蓄存款不能为融资方提供资金会加剧融资方对银行体系的需求。此外，作者还指出，投资拉动型增长产生了对信贷的大量需求，在货币上便体现为高货币增长率和货币量。

对于低通货膨胀率，作者认为存在两个市场，即竞争性部门和垄断性部门，前者多用CPI衡量，增长率较低，但后者（住房、医疗、教育等）则价格上涨明显，大量货币在垄断部门流动从而抬高价格，而为购买更高价格的垄断产品则形成更多储蓄从而扩大货币量，造成竞争性部门的价格增长乏力。从更深层次来看，作者其实是在探讨央行是否应该考虑资产价格作为货币政策制定的考虑因素。更高的资产价格（例如股票和地产）一方面会造成传统的财产效应（消费增加），以及对投资品供给的带动（更多IPO和新房），另一方面也会吸引更多资金流入（例如存款从用来消费变为证券帐户保证金，以及存款从用来消费变为凑首付的储蓄存款），而后者对货币结构存在直接影响，应予以注意。

补充和疑问或许有三点。首先，关于货币创造的渠道，作者沿袭传统分析方法，从贷款、购汇和购买债券的角度分析问题，而更基础的角度或许是直接从资产和负债的变化来看，即银行一种资产的产生，对应的是另一种资产的减少，还是银行自身负债的增加。若是前者，则没有新增货币，而后者则会产生新货币。通过列举具体的金融产品（贷款、购汇等），很容易被产品蒙蔽，例如作者自己也提到，银行购买其它银行的资产不会派生货币，而是银行之间超额准备金的转移，但在关于银行同业渠道创造货币时，作者又描述了银行间买入返售交易如何创造新货币。所以，具体分析产品会有一定局限，毕竟产品层出不穷，但一旦抓住资产和负债的变化则会清晰很多。

第二点是关于影子银行的。作者虽然论述了影子银行对货币供应量的影响，提出如果没有对商业银行负债方的存款货币数量造成影响，则该影子银行没有创造货币。但影子银行真正的问题是扩大了货币的范围，如同我的余额宝份额远超我的银行存款一样，因为余额宝份额和银行存款一样容易用于支付。如果余额宝也像米什金描述的银行一样，投资债券，再从其他人那里吸入银行存款成为份额，那么余额宝就实现了信用扩张，创造了余额宝份额，亦即影子银行的货币。影子银行的关键在于以商业银行存款作为自己的准备金，因此即使原有的商业银行存款不变，影子银行会扩张出新的货币。

第三点是关于离岸人民币的。作者描述了离岸人民币的存款派生模式，在该模式中，企业存入人民币存款形成境外银行持有的资产，银行保留部分资产作为准备金，剩余资产贷出，从而通过货币乘数形成存款派生。但作者自己也在第三章提到，创造货币并非要在一家银行进行多次存款和贷款业务才能实现，更非诸多单个银行汇集为银行总体业务而产生的奇妙效果。那么离岸银行是否需要多次流传才能派生存款，便成为了本书没有回答的问题。

最后，非常感谢李斌和伍戈二位作者在书中展现的精彩分析，也希望这本书能够给更多的读者带来新的启发。

If many traders managed to avoid the money shortage in 2013 by reading First Row, then Credit Creation, Money Supply and Economic Structure is the latest reference for understanding the central bank's perspective.

Published in December 2014, the book by Li Bin and Wu Ge, who work in the People's Bank of China's Monetary Policy Department and Monetary Policy II Department, represents a new exploration in the same direction following the Deputy Director of the Monetary Policy Department, Sun Guofeng's First Row. If many traders managed to avoid the money shortage in 2013 by reading First Row, then Credit Creation, Money Supply and Economic Structure is the latest reference for understanding the central bank's perspective.

The analytical framework of the People's Bank of China and the market framework are not the same, as evident from the "Monetary Policy Implementation Report" and brokerage analysis reports. There are certainly multiple reasons for this disparity, but perhaps two are more important. First, the central bank understands its approach while the outside world does not, such as the quantity and specific accounting categories of "general deposits" used as the base for calculating statutory reserve ratios and the quantity of excess reserves. Second, although the market and the central bank have the same information set from the monthly published statistical reports on the central bank's website, their interpretation methods differ. Reading research papers and monographs published by the People's Bank of China can help shed light on this.

"Credit Creation, Money Supply and Economic Structure" systematically summarizes the scattered analyses previously disclosed by the central bank, especially in the areas of credit creation, offshore renminbi, and the relationship between money, prices, and output. Regarding credit creation, the authors adopt Mr. Sun Guofeng's framework, using balance sheet analysis, and explicitly refute popular market views such as "raising the statutory reserve ratio will increase the total reserve amount," "absorbing deposits to issue loans," and "absorbing deposits to meet the needs of statutory reserves." Furthermore, the authors analyze in detail how interbank business affects credit creation, providing a detailed analysis of the interbank channel in the "Monetary Policy Implementation Report" for the third quarter of 2013. This is of great help in gaining a deeper understanding of funding costs in the interbank market and real economy financing.

Regarding offshore renminbi, the authors adopt the same settlement perspective analysis as Mr. Wang Yongli of the Bank of China. They point out that offshore renminbi deposits are the result of the joint credit creation of onshore central banks and banks acting as "central banks." The impact of offshore deposits on onshore money supply is determined by the current three clearing models. The outflow of funds under the clearing bank model is similar to the situation where residents withdraw large amounts of cash before the Spring Festival. The agent bank model is similar to the situation where funds flow into the balance of Yu'ebao (a money market fund managed by Ant Financial). The NRA model is similar to the situation where banks lend to each other at the end of the quarter or transfer intra-bank deposits. Therefore, specific circumstances need to be analyzed specifically.

Regarding the relationship between money, prices, and output, the authors strive to explain the seemingly contradictory phenomena of high M2/GDP and low inflation. Their perspective follows the central bank's consistent views on financing structure and high savings rates. Specifically, bank financing itself creates money, and non-intermediated financing only transfers money without creating new money; high savings rates reduce money circulation, leading to a disconnect between new money and GDP, and a lack of funding for financing parties from savings deposits exacerbates their demand for the banking system. Additionally, the authors point out that investment-driven growth generates substantial demand for credit, reflected in high money growth rates and money supply.

Regarding low inflation, the authors argue that there are two markets: competitive sectors and monopolistic sectors. The former are mostly measured by the CPI, which has a low growth rate. However, the latter (housing, healthcare, education, etc.) have significantly rising prices. A large amount of money flows into monopolistic sectors, thereby raising prices. To purchase higher-priced monopolistic products, more savings are generated, expanding the money supply and causing weak price growth in competitive sectors. From a deeper perspective, the authors are exploring whether the central bank should consider asset prices as a factor in monetary policy. Higher asset prices (such as stocks and real estate) can lead to traditional wealth effects (increased consumption) and drive investment supply (more IPOs and new houses), as well as attract more funds (such as converting deposits from consumption to securities account margins or down payments), directly affecting the monetary structure.

There may be three points of supplementation and doubt. First, regarding the channels of credit creation, the authors follow the traditional analysis method, analyzing the issue from the angles of loans, forex purchases, and bond purchases. However, a more fundamental perspective might be to look at changes in assets and liabilities, i.e., whether the creation of one asset by a bank corresponds to the reduction of another asset or an increase in the bank's own liabilities. If it's the former, there is no new money created; if it's the latter, new money is generated. Enumerating specific financial products (loans, forex purchases, etc.) can easily be misleading, as the variety of products is vast. Second, there is the issue of shadow banking. Although the authors discuss the impact of shadow banking on the money supply, they point out that if it doesn't affect the quantity of deposit money on the liability side of commercial banks, then the shadow banking system doesn't create money. However, the real issue with shadow banking is that it broadens the scope of money, just like my Yu'ebao shares far exceed my bank deposits because Yu'ebao shares are easily used for payments. If Yu'ebao, like the bank described by Mises, invests in bonds and takes in bank deposits from others, then it's realized credit expansion, creating Yu'ebao shares, or shadow bank money. The key to shadow banking is using commercial bank deposits as its reserves, so even if the original commercial bank deposits remain unchanged, shadow banking will expand and create new money.

Third, concerning offshore renminbi, the authors describe the derivation model of offshore renminbi deposits. In this model, enterprise deposits form assets held by foreign banks, banks retain part of these assets as reserves, and the remaining assets are lent out, forming derived deposits through the money multiplier effect. However, the authors themselves mention in the third chapter that creating money doesn't necessarily require multiple deposits and loan transactions in a single bank, nor does it require the aggregation of many individual banks to create the wondrous effects of the entire banking system. Therefore, whether offshore banks need multiple transmissions to derive deposits becomes a question unanswered in this book.

In conclusion, heartfelt thanks to the authors, Li Bin and Wu Ge, for presenting their insightful analysis in this book. Hopefully, this book will bring new insights to more readers.